Three forecasters all called the last election right: a poll, a betting market, and a machine model. They look identical on the scoreboard below. But one correct call tells you almost nothing. A better test asks: when a forecaster said an event was "about 80 per cent likely", did roughly 80 in every 100 actually happen? Pick one and find out.
These hit rates are illustrative and included to explain the idea. Aug 2026When this forecaster said an event was 80 per cent likely, how often did it actually happen? Drag the slider to your guess.
Your guess: 75 per cent
A Webflow page can't run a live model, so these figures are fixed and illustrative, not a live benchmark. All three forecasters passed the single-call scoreboard, but only calibration over a long run of predictions shows which numbers to trust. On clean independent tests the market says 80 per cent and delivers far less, while the best machines are still approaching, but not beating, top human forecasters.