P6-10 · Polls and democracy
A country bans published election polls. Four people are in the campaign. Flip the switch and watch who gains information, who loses it, and who is spared a cost.
The famous fear is the weakest link. Poll standings did not shift vote intentions among 23,421 Dutch voters, and a 55-day study of Germany’s 2021 campaign found “no evidence for bandwagon effects”. What polls change is who knows what.
From the article’s sources: Walgrave et al. (2023); Otjes and Rasmussen (2026); Sevenans (2021); Krause, Thomeczek and Wagner (2026); Farjam and Loxbo (2024); van der Meer, Hakhverdian and Aaldering (2016); Stoetzer et al. (2024); Unkelbach, John and Vogel (2023). No study has taken published polls away and measured the result; the “off” side follows from what each study shows polls supply.