Imagine a polling company that never telephones anybody. Instead it builds thousands of imaginary voters out of census data, feeds them a diet of news, and asks them how they intend to vote. In 2024 a startup did exactly that, and two days before the US election it published a probability for each of the seven battleground states, the states that decide the result.
Here are those seven numbers, as published. Each card shows how sure the imaginary electorate was, but not which candidate it picked. Put them in the order you would trust: the call you think it got right at the top, the one you think it got wrong at the bottom.
Drag a card, or use the ↑ ↓ buttons. Alphabetical to start.
Probabilities as published by Semafor, 4 November 2024 (Chua, 2024); the models were fed news up to midnight on 3 November 2024. Outcomes are the certified results (Federal Election Commission, 2025). A frozen 2024 capture, not a live forecast.