L0-01The Intention–Behaviour Gap: What people say they'll do isn't what they do
L0-02Introspection and Choice Blindness: Why people can't tell you why
L0-03The Replication Crisis in Psychology: When the science doesn't replicate
L0-04Measuring Behaviour: Methods and Limitations: Every way to measure people lies a little
L0-05Personality and Situations: What Walter Mischel actually argued
L0-06Voting and Consumer Choice: Is a vote just another purchase?

L1Mechanisms12 articles

Chapter overview

L1-01Attention and Inattentional Blindness: Most of what's in front of you, you never see
L1-02Reconstructive Memory: Your memory is a rewrite, not a recording
L1-03Learning and Reinforcement: The three ways we learn, and the one that hooks you
L1-04Habit Formation: Forming habits is not about willpower. It’s about context.
L1-05Dual-Process Theory: Your fast-mind answers before your slow-mind can check
L1-06The Elaboration Likelihood Model: When your argument matters, and when it doesn't
L1-07Affect as Information: How do I feel about it?
L1-08Motivation and Self-Determination: What actually moves us
L1-09Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Choosing when you can't know
L1-10Risk Perception: Felt risk vs real risk
L1-11Present Bias and Temporal Discounting: Why later always loses
L1-12Cognitive Biases - The mind's predictable shortcuts

L2Dispositions8 articles

Chapter overview

L2-01Personality (Big Five) - The five dials of personality
L2-02Temperament & Reactivity - The reactivity you're born with
L2-03Cognitive Styles - How people prefer to think
L2-04Emotion Regulation - Reframe it, or bottle it up
L2-05Attachment Styles - The patterns we bring to closeness
L2-06Cognitive Abilities - What intelligence measures, and what it misses
L2-07Dark Traits - The myth of the useful villain
L2-08Self-Report Validity - Why personality tests wobble

L3Contents15 articles

Chapter overview

L3-01Belief Revision - How minds actually change
L3-03Values - The map of human values
L3-04Goals - Moving toward vs moving away
L3-05Loss Aversion - Why losses hurt more than gains help
L3-06Self-Beliefs - The three selves people confuse
L3-07Identity - The selves we carry
L3-08Gender and Sexual Identity - Untangling sex, gender, and attraction
L3-09Personal Narratives - The story that makes a self
L3-10Worldviews - The frames behind your opinions
L3-11Moral Foundations - Your moral taste buds
L3-12Ideology - Ideology is more than left vs right
L3-13Possible Selves - The future selves that pull you
L3-14Tastes and Preferences - Where preferences come from
L3-15Wellbeing and Flourishing - Two kinds of 'good life'
L3-16Religion/spirituality as worldview - Belief systems as cognitive frames

L4Contexts20 articles

Chapter overview

L4-01Belonging and Social Identity - The need to belong
L4-02Group Dynamics - How groups reshape the individual
L4-03Norms - What others do vs what they approve
L4-04Status, Prestige, and Hierarchy - Two routes to rank
L4-05Loneliness and Connection - Social pain is real pain
L4-06Trust and Reciprocity - The engine of cooperation
L4-07Networks - How behaviour travels
L4-08Family and Kinship - The first and stickiest context
L4-09Class and Economic Position - How position shapes behaviour
L4-10Culture - Cultural dimensions, and their limits
L4-11Rituals and Customs - The acts that bind groups
L4-12Religion - The social machinery of faith
L4-14Language and Framing - Wording changes the choice
L4-15Power and Authority - Obedience and its limits
L4-16Generation and Cohort - Age, cohort, or just the era?
L4-17Life Stage and the Lifecourse - Behaviour shifts by life phase
L4-18Institutions - The rules-in-use around us
L4-19Media Ecology - The medium shapes us
L4-20Place and Geography - Where you are shapes what you do
L4-21Lifestyle and Habitus - Taste as embodied class

L5Applications19 articles

Chapter overview

L5-01Voting Decisions - How votes actually get decided
L5-02Brand Choice and Category Entry Points - Getting into the consideration set
L5-03Loyalty and Switching - What really keeps a customer
L5-04Adoption and Diffusion - How new things spread
L5-05Consumption Rituals - Branded routines that lock in use
L5-06Word of Mouth and Referral - Why people share
L5-07Activism, Protest, Mobilisation - From grievance to action
L5-08Health Behaviour - Why knowing isn't doing
L5-09Financial Behaviour and Money Psychology - The psychology of money
L5-10Compliance - Getting to yes
L5-11Lifestyle Segmentation - Why your segments don't replicate
L5-12Cialdini's Six Principles - The six levers of influence
L5-13Nudge and Choice Architecture - Nudge, and what's now embarrassing
L5-14COM-B and the Behaviour Change Wheel - A diagnostic for behaviour change
L5-15Framing and Message Design - Same facts, different frame, different action
L5-16Defaults and Inertia - The opt-in / opt-out chasm
L5-17Authority, Source, Messenger - Who says it changes whether it lands
L5-18Social Proof in the Wild - We copy what others do
L5-19The Ethics of Behaviour Change - Nudge, manipulation, or assistance?

L6Integrative frameworks27 articles

Chapter overview

L6-01The Theory of Planned Behaviour - Predicting intention
L6-02The Fogg Behaviour Model - B = Motivation × Ability × Prompt
L6-03COM-B and the Behaviour Change Wheel - Where every lever fits
L6-04Self-Determination Theory - What real motivation needs
L6-05Regulatory Focus Theory - Promotion vs prevention
L6-06Self-Discrepancy Theory - Actual, ideal, ought
L6-07Identity-Based Motivation - Behaviour that fits 'people like me'
L6-08Dual-Process Theories - The formal two-systems frameworks
L6-09Prospect Theory - How we really value gains and losses
L6-10Construal Level Theory - Distance changes how you think
L6-11Self-Categorisation Theory - When "I" becomes "we"
L6-12Social Identity Approach in practice - Social identity, applied
L6-13Intergroup Emotions Theory - Groups generate emotions
L6-14Bourdieu (habitus, field, capital) - Structure embodied as disposition
L6-15Practice Theory (Reckwitz, Shove) - Behaviour as shared practice, not choice
L6-16Consumer Culture Theory - Consumption as meaning-making
L6-17Cultural Consensus Theory - Measuring shared cultural knowledge
L6-18Bronfenbrenner's Ecological Systems - The nested contexts around a person
L6-19Stages of Change / Transtheoretical Model - Precontemplation to maintenance
L6-20Social Cognitive Theory (Bandura) - Reciprocal determinism and self-efficacy
L6-21Life course and developmental cascades - Small early effects compound
L6-22Means-End Chain and laddering - Attributes, consequences, values
L6-23Job-to-be-Done - What people hire a product to do
L6-24Mental availability and category entry points (Ehrenberg-Bass) - Getting noticed at the buying moment
L6-25Customer / voter decision journey models - From trigger to action
L6-26VUCA and its limits - Volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity
L6-27BANI as a successor frame - Brittle, anxious, nonlinear, incomprehensible

MRXMarket Research69

Collection overview

M0Foundations9 articles

Chapter overview

M0-01Decision-Grade Research Evidence: A Number Can Now Pass Every Check and Still Be Nothing
M0-02Survey Fraud and Respondent Authenticity: Nobody Can Tell You How Many of Your Respondents Were Human
M0-03Validity of Synthetic Research: The Average Was Right, but Everyone in It Was Missing.
M0-04Research Benchmarks and Validation: A Score Is Only as Honest as the Test Behind It
M0-05Data Provenance: A Number Can Now Come From Nowhere
M0-06Representative Research Samples: A Representative Sample Is Now a Claim, Not a Draw
M0-07The Say–Do Gap in AI Research: A Machine Learns What People Say, Not What They Do
M0-08Research Speed and Evidence Quality: A Fast Study and a Slow Study Now Look the Same
M0-09Research Triangulation: One Method Is an Opinion

M1Asking9 articles

Chapter overview

M1-01AI-Moderated Interviews: The interviewer who never tires
M1-02Conversational Surveys: The Survey That Talks Back
M1-03Voice and Multimodal Research: Ask Aloud
M1-04Cognitive Interviewing at Scale: Pretest a Question on Five Hundred Minds
M1-05AI Interviews on Sensitive Topics: The Machine Gets More Words Out of You. Truer Answers Are a Separate Claim.
M1-06Auditing AI-Coded Survey Responses: The machine codes a million answers overnight, and the audit decides whether to believe it.
M1-07Multilingual Research and Translation: The Machine Speaks Fifty Languages. Your Question Might Not.
M1-08Survey Bot Detection: The Old Bots Are Easy to Catch. The New Ones Write Like People.
M1-09Respondent Experience and Data Quality: A Bad Survey Was Always Expensive. Two Things Just Made It Unaffordable.

M2Simulating11 articles

Chapter overview

M2-01Synthetic Survey Respondents: Ask the Model What the Public Thinks
M2-02Respondent Digital Twins: The Twin Knows Your Type, Not You
M2-03Synthetic Sample Validation: The Mean Matches. That Is the Trap.
M2-04Survey Sample Augmentation: Borrow the Answers You're Missing, Up to a Point
M2-05Synthetic Data for Survey Pretesting: Fake the Survey, Not the Findings
M2-06AI Agent Market Simulation: Run the Same Market Twice, Get Two Worlds
M2-07Synthetic Expert Interviews: Interview the Expert You Could Never Book
M2-08Conjoint Analysis with Fewer Respondents: Cut the Panel, Keep the Referee
M2-09Synthetic Research Vendor Audits: The Demo Always Works
M2-10Synthetic Respondents for Hypothesis Generation: A Hypothesis Engine, Not a Truth Machine
M2-11Evaluating Synthetic Data Claims: One Word Now Covers Two Very Different Products

M3Observing11 articles

Chapter overview

M3-01Behavioural Trace Research: The Trace Knows What the Survey Can't
M3-02Retail Media Measurement: The Store Sells the Ad and Grades It Too
M3-03Advertising Attention Measurement: Attention Gets a Ruler, and the Rulers Disagree
M3-04AI-Predicted Eye Tracking: The Heatmap That Never Watched Anyone
M3-05AI Creative Testing: Making the Ad Got Free. Choosing It Didn't.
M3-06Facial Emotion Recognition: The Face Is Not a Readout
M3-07AI Social Listening: Now It Reads Every Review. Sometimes It Reads One Nobody Wrote.
M3-08Brand Visibility in AI Answers: Ask the Same Machine Twice, Get a Different Brand
M3-09Virtual Shelf Testing: Test a Product on a Shelf That Isn't There
M3-10In-Store Behavioural Observation: The Cameras Were Already There
M3-11In-the-Moment Customer Experience Research: Catch the Answer Before Memory Rewrites It

M4Modelling11 articles

Chapter overview

M4-01Marketing Mix Modelling: The Big Model Came Back
M4-02Advertising Incrementality: Incrementality or It Didn't Happen
M4-03Triangulating Campaign Measurement: The Campaign Ran. Four Instruments Can't Agree on What It Did.
M4-04Uplift Modelling: Knowing Who Will Buy Is Not Knowing Whom You Moved
M4-05Small-Area Market Estimation: Big Answers from Small Samples
M4-06Data Fusion in Market Research: The Correlations Your Data Never Measured
M4-07Brand Positioning Maps from Text: Draw the Market Map Without Asking Anyone
M4-08Research Knowledge Graphs: Let a Machine Draw the Map, Then Check What It Invented
M4-09Choosing a Conjoint Engine: The Choice Engine That Fits Better and Reads Worse
M4-10Research Uncertainty and Intervals: The Number Is Only Half the Deliverable
M4-11Customer Segmentation Validation: Make Your Segments Prove They Are Real

M5Deciding9 articles

Chapter overview

M5-01Research Archives and Retrieval: The Archive That Answers Back
M5-02Agentic Research and Human Oversight: The Agent Can Run the Analysis. It Cannot Tell You When It Got It Wrong.
M5-03Conversational Research Reports: Ask the Report Anything. It Will Always Answer.
M5-04Continuous Research and Sequential Testing: The Statistics of Never Looking Away
M5-05Comparing Forecasting Methods: The Poll, the Market, and the Machine
M5-06AI Strategy Simulation: What AI War-Games Can and Can't Tell You
M5-07Research Tools and Expert Judgement: Anyone Can Run a Study Now, but Spotting Its Mistakes Still Takes an Expert
M5-08AI Agents as Customers: What Changes When an AI Agent Does the Shopping
M5-09Research Team Design in the AI Era: Fewer Hands, More Judgement

M6Governing9 articles

Chapter overview

M6-01The ICC/ESOMAR Research Code: The Research Code Caught Up With AI. Enforcement Did Not.
M6-02Disclosing Synthetic Research Reduces Trust
M6-03Research Consent and AI Training: You Can Withdraw Consent, But The Model Won't Forget.
M6-04Digital Twin Ownership: Build a Double of a Real Panellist. Now Who Owns It?
M6-05Privacy-Preserving Research: How to Measure What You Can No Longer See
M6-06The EU AI Act and Research: The AI Act Meets the Discussion Guide
M6-07AI Persuasion, Measured and Deployed: The Model That Measures Persuasion Can Also Be Used to Persuade
M6-08Survey Incentives and Data Fraud: When Faking a Survey Costs Less Than Answering It
M6-09Auditing Research Accuracy Claims: Proof Is an Accuracy Figure on a Holdout the Seller Didn't Choose

POLXPolitical Polling69

Collection overview

P0Foundations8 articles

Chapter overview

P0-012024 US Election Polling Accuracy: The 2024 Scoreboard: Best state polls since 1944, same old miss
P0-02Total Margin of Error: The number on the poll is half the story
P0-03Poll, Forecast, Market: Three different questions
P0-04Campaign Effects and Persuasion: The Minimal-Effects Baseline: Campaigns move less than everyone thinks
P0-05Polling Aggregators and Accountability: After the Aggregators: The averages lost their referee
P0-06Voter Behaviour and Consumer Choice: Voter vs Consumer, Applied: Same person, different market
P0-07Public Trust in Political Polls: Trust in Polls: Right more often, believed less
P0-08Interpreting Election Forecast Probabilities: Reading a Probability: 70% is not a prediction

P1Measuring Opinion12 articles

Chapter overview

P1-01Partisan Nonresponse: Who picks up the phone is political
P1-02Weighting on Politics: Recalled vote, party ID and the price of stability
P1-03Opt-In Panels in Politics: Cheap, fast and vulnerable
P1-04Modes and the Missing Voter: Text, web, phone, mixed
P1-05Modelling Who Will Vote: The electorate that didn't show up as planned
P1-06MRP Comes of Age: Six hundred constituencies from one sample
P1-07Issue Polling's Fragility: Support depends on the sentence
P1-08Asking Who Will Win: Citizen forecasting
P1-09Talking Politics to a Machine: AI-led interviews in public opinion
P1-10Synthetic Voters: Can a model stand in for the electorate?
P1-11Polling Without Asking: Opinion from digital traces, structured by a model
P1-12Measuring Polarisation: The most-quoted construct with the least settled ruler

P2Forecasting9 articles

Chapter overview

P2-01The Forecasting Model: Polls plus fundamentals plus priors
P2-02Fundamentals vs Polls: The economy, incumbency and what they still explain
P2-03Correlated Error: When every poll is wrong the same way
P2-04Prediction Markets: A bet is not a poll
P2-05Markets vs Polls, Head to Head: Expectations vs intentions, again
P2-06Machines That Forecast: LLMs and ensembles
P2-07Election-Night Models: Calling races from partial returns
P2-08The Forecast Changes the Election: Publishing a probability moves turnout
P2-09Election Forecasting Beyond the US: Beyond the US: Forecasting in multi-party and PR systems

P3Voter Data9 articles

Chapter overview

P3-01The Voter File: The most important dataset in politics
P3-02Support, Turnout, Persuasion Scores: Three models that run a campaign
P3-03Two Data Regimes: What US campaigns can do and EU campaigns can't
P3-04EU Political Advertising Platform Exits: When the Platforms Left: Political ads vanish from Meta and Google in the EU
P3-05First-Party Campaign Data: The First-Party Revival: Owned channels replace rented reach
P3-06The Microtargeting Claim: Precision without proof
P3-07Relational Data: Your volunteers' phones as the file
P3-08Synthetic Electorates: Rehearsing the campaign on silicon voters
P3-09Voter Identity Resolution: Knowing Who Is Who: Identity resolution and its limits

P4Persuasion10 articles

Chapter overview

P4-01Message Testing at Scale: The RCT culture arrives in campaigns
P4-02AI-Generated Political Messages: The Machine Copywriter: LLM messages persuade like lay humans
P4-03AI Persuasion and Microtargeting: Bigger Models, Finer Targets: Diminishing returns on both
P4-04AI Disclosure and Political Persuasion: Labelled AI Still Persuades: Disclosure doesn't disarm the message
P4-05AI Dialogues and Conspiracy Beliefs: Conversation Changes Minds: AI dialogues that durably reduce conspiracy belief
P4-06Deep Canvassing: The durable effect that isn't a message
P4-07Deepfakes and Their Measured Impact: Feared, common, and (so far) modestly persuasive
P4-08Finding the Persuadable: Uplift modelling in politics
P4-09Measuring Political Persuasion: Story or Evidence?: What people say persuaded them, and what did
P4-10Moral Reframing and Political Persuasion: Talking Across the Divide: Moral reframing and its replication record

P5Mobilising11 articles

Chapter overview

P5-01Get-Out-the-Vote Contact Effectiveness: What a Contact Is Worth: GOTV effects by mode, priced
P5-02Text Message Decay: From novelty to noise
P5-03Relational Organising: Friends beat strangers
P5-04Creators and Podcasts in Political Campaigns: Creators as Campaign Media: Podcasts, streamers and the 2024 shift
P5-05The WhatsApp Election: Closed channels as campaign infrastructure
P5-06Campaigning Without Paid Social: The EU experiment
P5-07Banking the Vote: Early and mail voting as a field strategy
P5-08Machines on the Phones: AI voice, robocall bans and the volunteer
P5-09Small-Dollar Political Fundraising: Small-Dollar Data: Fundraising as a behavioural system
P5-10Youth Voter Mobilisation: Turning Out the Young: What worked in 2024, what didn't
P5-11Household Effects on Voter Turnout: Turnout Is Contagious: The household you didn't text

P6Governing10 articles

Chapter overview

P6-01EU Political Advertising Regulation: The TTPA Regime: Transparency by regulation, exit by platform
P6-02Political Advertising Transparency: The Transparency Paradox: The archive went dark when the law arrived
P6-03AI Political Content and Deepfake Regulation: Rules for Synthetic Politics: Deepfake laws, disclosure duties, robocall bans
P6-04Prediction Market Regulation: Who Gets to Price an Election: Prediction markets vs states
P6-05Political Polling Disclosure: Show Your Work: Poll disclosure and the herding question
P6-06Poll Blackouts: Countries that ban late polls
P6-07Influence Operations, Measured: Reach is not effect
P6-08Political Data and Privacy: Sensitive by definition
P6-09Political Research Ethics: The Researcher in the War Room: Effective and ethical, in politics
P6-10Polling and Democracy: Do Polls Help Democracy?: The oldest argument, with new evidence